Tropical Cyclone Activity
Issued at 800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
000
WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
...IKE HITTING CUBA HARD...EYE OF OVER CAMAGUEY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2008
000
WTNT24 KNHC 080858
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2008
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ADJUSTED ITS WATCHES
AND WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED ISLAND. ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE BAHAMAS ARE DISCONTINUED.
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 77.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......120NE 175SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 77.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 76.6W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 175SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 77.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
000
WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT
THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND
THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE
CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD
ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER
WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW
DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2008
000
FONT14 KNHC 080859
PWSAT4
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 3 4 12 27
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 12 4 3 8 13
TROPICAL STORM 11 57 60 35 20 15 20
HURRICANE 89 42 25 59 74 65 40
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 79 37 21 37 30 18 13
HUR CAT 2 9 4 3 14 21 17 11
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 5 17 20 10
HUR CAT 4 1 1 X 2 5 10 6
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 65KT 60KT 75KT 90KT 100KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17)
MIAMI FL 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 3 17(20) 12(32) 6(38) 5(43) 1(44) 1(45)
MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 18(21) 18(39) 9(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 10(24) 9(33) 1(34) 1(35)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 9(28) 2(30) 1(31)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 12(28) 4(32) 1(33)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 1(24)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) 1(20)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 3(26)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 9(30) 3(33)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 3(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 5(28)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 15(38) 6(44)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 4(20)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 6(29)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 7(32)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 8(42)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 22(46) 6(52)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 9(36)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 9(44)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 11(31)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 11(31)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 10(33)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
ANDROS 34 8 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
GREAT EXUMA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 10(38) 3(41) 1(42)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 3 38(41) 25(66) 9(75) 4(79) X(79) X(79)
HAVANA 50 X 9( 9) 19(28) 7(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38)
HAVANA 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 34 3 21(24) 17(41) 7(48) 3(51) 1(52) X(52)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 47 43(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93)
CIENFUEGOS 50 6 53(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) 1(63) X(63)
CIENFUEGOS 64 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAMAGUEY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAMAGUEY 64 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
MONTEGO BAY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KINGSTON 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Issued at 900Z
Issued at 839 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008
Issued at 845 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IKE...LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMAGUEY.
THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION...HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
